When faced with the choice over who is more likely to see victory this summer - Starmer, Sunak or Southgate - the public overwhelmingly feel more confident about Starmer’s chances. 3 in 4 (74%) of the GB public believe that Sir Keir Starmer is more likely to win the General Election than Rishi Sunak winning the General Election or Gareth Southgate winning the Euros.

There are some key gendered differences. Whilst 80% of men put their faith in Starmer winning the election as the most likely outcome, only 68% of women would say the same, a difference of 12 points. Women are, however, more likely than men to put their faith in Gareth Southgate’s leadership of the England Football Team at the Euros, with 1 in 5 women (20%) saying they believe this is the most likely outcome, compared to just over 1 in 10 men (12%).

The majority of Conservative voters are expecting Starmer to win, with 51% of them viewing a Labour victory as the most likely outcome this summer.

Two thirds (66%) of those who voted Conservative in 2019 view a Labour victory as the most likely outcome, followed by Southgate’s chances at the Euros (18%), and finally perceiving the Conservatives winning the General Election as the least likely outcome (16%).